Business jet market on ‘solid footing’ in Q4 2025 says Global Jet Capital

The business jet market ended 2025 with stability thanks to strong fundamentals, including rising usage and transaction activity and steady aircraft availability and values, according to Global Jet Capital. 

Publishing its fourth-quarter (Q4) 2025 market brief this week, the US business aircraft financier said these trends set the stage for continued momentum into 2026.

Business jet departures experienced broad-based growth in Q4, rising 4.6% year-over-year (YoY), it reported. OEM backlogs rose 10.4% YoY in Q4 as orders increased and transaction activity was strong in 2025, with total volume increasing 9.8% YoY.

In terms of pre-owned aircraft for sale as a percentage of the total installed base, the percentage was lower in Q4 2025 than Q4 2024, declining from to 6.9% from 7.4%.

However, in Q4 2025, bluebook values increased 0.4%, reflecting stability between supply and demand during the quarter.

Global economy 

Global economic growth slowed to 2.5% in Q4 2025 from an average of about 3% in the first three quarters of the year. Still, growth in the quarter was stronger than expected earlier in the year when economists were concerned about uncertainty following tariffs on several major US trading partners, said Global Jet Capital.

Heading into 2026, uncertainty and geopolitical risk remain, it added. “Economists have become increasingly optimistic, however, forecasting resilience will carry over into 2026. The IMF expects the global economy will grow 3.3% in 2026, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from its October 2025 forecast,” the report stated.

Flight operations

According to the report, the strong demand for business aviation that emerged during the fall 2024 travel season carried into 2025, driving annual flight operations growth of 3.8%. Activity accelerated in the Q4, rising 4.6% YoY. Growth was broad-based, with departures increasing 4.3% in North America and 5.4% in the rest of the world compared to Q4 2024. Fractional operations remained the leading growth segment.

Departures in Q4 2025 increased 0.7% from Q3 2025, roughly in line with the 1.1% sequential growth seen in Q4 2024 and an improvement over the 2.1% decline recorded in Q4 2023. Total flight operations ended the year 3% higher overall than in 2022, the previous peak year for departures.

OEM backlogs 

Excluding Dassault which had not reported ahead of publication, OEM backlogs rose 10.4% YoY in Q4 2025, reaching $53.6bn. 

Industry-wide book-to-bill ratios were strong during the quarter even as deliveries and revenue increased, demonstrating continued strong demand for new business jets, the report stated. Lead times among major manufacturers remained between 18 and 24 months. 

Transactions 

In 2025, overall transaction dollar volume increased 9.7% compared to 2024. After a 0.4% year-over-year decline in Q2 2025, activity rebounded sharply in Q3, with transaction volume rising 20.5% versus Q3 2024. Growth moderated but remained positive in Q4, as transaction volume increased 3.5% YoY. For the full year, business jet transaction dollar volume was evenly split between new deliveries and pre-owned transactions, reported Global Jet Capital.

New deliveries grew steadily throughout 2025, reflecting wha Global Jet Capital calls a “new normal” in aircraft production levels from the lows of the pandemic. 

“Though meaningful supply chain and labor constraints remain, OEMs have largely normalised their manufacturing and have kept backlogs relatively steady,” the report stated. 

As a result, new delivery dollar volume rose 6.1% compared to 2024. Early reporting indicated that new unit deliveries declined 1.2%, but it Global Jet Capital noted that not all 2025 deliveries had been reported at the time of publication, and the figure is expected to increase as reporting is finalised.

The pre-owned market also performed well in 2025, with unit volume expanding 17.8% in Q4 and 13.5% for the full year.

For sale inventory 

Aircraft listings declined 5.6% YoY in Q4 2025, largely in line with the 5.8% decline in new listings for the full year, the report stated.

In 2021, strong market activity led to many transactions involving unlisted aircraft, supporting a 25.3% drop in public listings when compared to 2019. From early 2022 through mid-2024, however, sellers gradually returned to publicly listing their aircraft, bringing activity back in line with historical norms and driving an increase in new listings.

As the market stabilised in late 2024 and 2025, listings began to decline once again. The composition of those listings has also shifted since 2019. In 2019, aircraft aged 13 years or older accounted for 58.4% of listings; by 2025, that share had risen to 69.6%. 

Meanwhile, listings for aircraft aged 12 years or younger fell 20.1% over the same period and made up just 30.4% of total listings in 2025.

In Q4 2025, aircraft availability declined, falling from 7.6% of the total fleet in Q3 2025 to 6.9%. Availability at the end of the quarter was also lower than the 7.5% recorded at the end of Q4 2024 and well below the historical average of roughly 10 percent. This decline was driven by fewer new listings and continued strength in the pre-owned market throughout late 2024 and 2025. The period of stability followed a stretch of rising availability, as more aircraft were publicly listed during 2023 and 2024.

The relationship between supply and demand is expected to remain balanced in 2026, with steady listings and availability continuing to track below historical averages, the report stated.

Residual value 

In Q4 2025, aircraft bluebook values for like-aged aircraft increased 0.4% from Q4 2024, extending a trend of relative stability that began in late 2023, according to Global Jet Capital. Between Q3 and Q4 2025, aggregate values fell 0.6%, remaining broadly in line with historical patterns.

This period of relative stability followed significant value gains between 2021 and 2023. Although availability declined in Q4, stability largely continued during the quarter, the report stated.

Despite this overall steadiness, value trends varied across the installed base in Q4 2025. As noted earlier, availability of older aircraft remained higher than that of younger aircraft. As a result, values for aircraft aged 13 years and older declined 0.7% during the quarter as they continued to normalise following the gains recorded between 2021 and 2023. In contrast, values for aircraft 12 years and younger increased modestly, rising 0.8%.

The report noted that business jets are depreciating assets and a steady decline in the price of an aircraft over its lifespan is to be expected. “The current consensus among industry players is that supply and demand are well-balanced and should support stable aircraft values in the foreseeable future, economic uncertainty notwithstanding,” it stated.

‘Solid year’

Overall, the market brief describes 2025 as a “solid year”, despite “uncertainty and volatility” defining the broader macroeconomic environment earlier in the year.

“Against this backdrop, the business jet market remained strong in 2025, with usage increasing year over year and accelerating in in the second half of the year,” the report concluded. “Transactions were also steady throughout most of the year, while availability and values remained stable. Overall, the market appears well positioned to continue to remain strong in 2026.”

Meanwhile, in autumn last year, Global Jet Capital predicted that 3,778 business jet transactions worth $44.2bn will close in 2029, up from 3,383, worth $38.7bn, in 2025.

Released as part of its 2025 forecast the business jet financier is predicted that both the total number of transactions and the dollar amount will increase by an annual average of 3.9% for the next five years. A record 3,963 deals closed in 2021 worth $32.5bn.