Bizjet market remains resilient in Q1 despite global uncertainty: Global Jet Capital
Global Jet Capital anticipates business aviation market to remain stable through the rest of 2026 barring any material escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Demand for business aviation held firm in the first quarter of 2026, with flight activity, manufacturer order books, and aircraft values all pointing to a healthy market despite geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, said Global Jet Capital in its first quarter market brief.
The global uncertainty pushed Brent crude oil prices up 106.5% and the US Volatility Index up 68.9% between the close of Q4 2025 and the end of Q1 2026.
Business jet departures rose 3.8 % year-over-year in Q1, led by North America where departures climbed 4.3%. The rest of the world posted growth of 2.5%, with fractional operations the strongest performing segment. Departures were also 5% higher than in Q1 2022, itself a period of historically elevated usage.
OEM backlogs across four major manufacturers grew 19.3%YoY to reach $57.1bn, excluding Dassault which does not report Q1 results. Orders were driven by both fleet operators and private buyers, with the industry-wide book-to-bill ratio rising above 1-to-1. Lead times for new aircraft averaged between 18 and 24 months, giving manufacturers a stable pipeline of work throughout the year.
Transaction volumes appeared weaker on paper, with pre-owned unit sales down 27.2% and new delivery figures down 34%YoY.
However, Global Jet Capital attributed much of the decline to delays in data reporting rather than a genuine market slowdown. Q1 2025 was also an unusually active period, as buyers rushed to complete deals ahead of anticipated US tariff implementation, creating a comparison that was always going to be difficult to match.
Pre-owned inventory remained tight, with aircraft available for sale at 6.7% of the total fleet, down from 7.2% a year earlier and well below the historical average of around 10%. Younger aircraft aged 12 years and under were particularly scarce, with availability at just 3.9% compared to 8.2% for older models. Newer jets also accounted for a shrinking share of new listings, representing 26.7% of all listings in Q1 2026, down from 35.8% in Q1 2021.
Aircraft values edged up 1.1%YoY, with younger aircraft appreciating at a faster rate of 1.5% compared to 0.2% for older models. Analysts cautioned that business jets remain depreciating assets over the long term and that the market is expected to transition away from the elevated activity seen in late 2025 towards more typical supply and demand conditions.
Global GDP grew 2.7% year over year in Q1, and the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook projected full-year growth of 3.1%, a slight downward revision from its January forecast. Global Jet Capital anticipates business aviation market to remain stable through the rest of 2026 barring any material escalation in the Middle East conflict.
