Rumours of Dubai jet exodus exaggerated

opinion

by Alasdair Whyte

March 9, 2026

Jeffrey Emmenis, director of Vertis Aviation, was having lunch at a Dubai golf club on Saturday when he suddenly heard loud booms. He realised that Iran was firing missiles at the United Arab Emirates.

Six days later, he is still not enjoying getting texts warning of possible attacks or hearing sounds of intercepting missiles taking off at night. But he is not particularly scared. “There is a lot of sensationalism. For Dubai citizens and residents, it is business as usual with some inconveniences,” he says.

“We know that the government is doing everything it can to keep people safe and deserves enormous credit.” One of his children is swimming in the pool outside as he talks with CJI.

He is not the only Dubai resident saying this. “There is a lot of fake news outside of the UAE. It is not ideal, but really it is business as usual,” says Mark Kammer, founder, Dynamic Advanced Training as he grills a fillet steak on his barbeque. “We have been open for training all week.” Kammer says that the number of attacks and alerts has fallen significantly since Sunday.

Many tourists and transfer passengers have, understandably, been desperate to get home. The US State Department says that 24,000 American citizens have come back to the US from the region in the last week. There have been a lot of headlines (and many Instagram posts) about people rushing to charter aircraft, but relatively few business jet flights have taken place.

“There have been no signs of a mass charter exodus,” says Richard Koe, managing director, WINGX. “There has been a big dip in outbound and inbound business aviation traffic in the Middle East and there are still lots of business jets on the ground in the region.”

Air Charter Service says it organised about 20 business jet departures from Muscat International Airport in the first week of the conflict. This is more than the single flight it normally arranges from Oman a week, but not comparable with say Covid.

“It’s been a huge challenge to find and source aircraft. The airspace is regularly closed. Special permits and approvals are required for take-offs when airspace hasn’t been officially opened. DWC was the only airport operating at one point,” says Jonny Dodge, founder, YOURSKY in Dubai. He says they have been focusing on short trips so aircraft can return to the region. So far they have focused on finding flights out of Dubai. “Because of our local relationships we’ve managed to get a lot out of there.” Says Dodge. “We’ve never had such a high demand and if the prices weren’t as high, I think we would’ve had even more bookings but the price is very high because so a few people are willing to do it.”

Data from WINGX shows that total flights out of the Middle East fell 10% compared with a year ago. It says that there were 124 flights on Monday, compared with 147 the week before. It is typically a quiet period for the region because of Ramadan.

“We have not booked one evacuation flight. We did get a lot of enquiries but a lot of the people asking were tyre kickers,” says one Dubai broker. “A lot of people wanted options but most of them are flying home commercial.”

WINGX saw a 20% rise in flights to Turkey where it believes some owners have parked their aircraft. It is possible that some of these aircraft may be stuck there waiting to fly back.

“There has not been a mass departure of business. It has been difficult to get slots with airspace restrictions, but things are generally returning to normal,” says one Dubai-based business aviation veteran. “We are slowly seeing things returning to normal. Some business jet owners definitely left, but we are starting to see business jets and people coming back in.”

WINGX reports that there were 51 business jets parked in Dubai on Tuesday. There are now just 20. “The airport is empty and hangars are empty,” says one local operator. WINGX says the number of aircraft in the whole region has fallen from 164 to 112 jets.

Insurers are also concerned about the situation. “We have seen from one London underwriter that they have asked to have any flights be specifically approved by the insurance carrier,” says Ryan Cranford, aviation practice leader, Rhodes Risk Advisors. “So, you can still operate if within parameters allowable by the government, but as I understand right now, it is a no-fly zone for civilian air traffic unless specifically approved.”

Now is not a good time to negotiate new insurance coverage. “The war liability market for that region is also in a wait and see mode for things to de-escalate, making it very arduous to examine a new war liability placement,” says Cranford.

Cranford believes that things will get easier for insurance as airlines return. “So if airlines open up and the airports are deemed operable and safe and flights can resume, then civilian traffic is probably going to follow,” says Cranford.

Emmenis and his family are leaving Dubai next week for South Africa. They have been able to bring the trip forward because Dubai’s schools have broken up one week earlier than planned. But they will be back soon. He adds: “Those who want to leave will leave, but it is home for us.”