Business aviation’s next growth challenge: Making more of the aircraft we already have

opinion

by CJI Expert

September 16, 2026

A prospective aircraft owner can face an awkward choice: wait for a new aircraft, compete for a suitable pre-owned one, or reconsider how much access they need, says Houseman.

Demand for business aviation remains strong. Turning that demand into sustainable growth will depend as much on people, parts and aircraft availability as it does on new orders. Words by Iain Houseman, president, ZenithJet.

A healthier market, not an easy one

A prospective aircraft owner can face an awkward choice: wait for a new aircraft, compete for a suitable pre-owned one, or reconsider how much access they need. For the industry, that choice reveals a larger question. If demand continues to grow, where will the additional usable capacity come from?

The outlook is encouraging, but it needs careful reading. Jetcraft’s 2025 Ever Forward report forecast 11,202 pre-owned transactions worth $73.9 billion over 2025–2029. It also described a market returning towards more balanced inventory after the unusually tight conditions of the early 2020s. Meanwhile, the General Aviation Manufacturers Association recorded 854 business-jet shipments in 2025, up from 764 in 2024. These are signs of activity, not evidence that every buyer can obtain the right aircraft on the right timetable. Availability varies by model, condition, location and the work required before an aircraft is ready for its next owner. Jetcraft, Ever Forward 2025; GAMA, aircraft shipments and billings.

The growth paradox

A pre-owned jet may be listed for sale yet require extensive inspection, refurbishment, avionics work or resolution of records and maintenance findings. A new aircraft may have a delivery position, but its completion and entry into service still depend on an interconnected network of manufacturers, specialist suppliers, skilled technicians and approval processes. The practical constraint is therefore not simply the number of aircraft in existence. It is the number that can be delivered, maintained and operated to the required standard when customers need them.

That distinction matters as the supply chain absorbs pressures from several directions. Geopolitical disruption and changes in tariffs or monetary policy can alter costs and purchasing decisions. Raw-material shortages or a delay at a specialist supplier can affect a much larger programme downstream. Increased military production may also compete for some of the same aerospace skills and manufacturing capacity. Consolidation can create scale and investment, but it may leave operators with fewer alternatives when a critical component or service is delayed.

None of these pressures acts in isolation. An aircraft awaiting a part occupies maintenance capacity. A delayed maintenance event postpones delivery. A postponed delivery keeps a customer in another aircraft for longer, or sends them back into the charter market. Small delays can propagate across an entire fleet.

Progress starts with a different measure

The most immediate opportunity is to make better use of aircraft already flying. A well-planned refurbishment can give an older aircraft a more capable and appealing second life through cabin renewal, connectivity, avionics upgrades and carefully selected systems work. For the right airframe, this may provide useful capacity sooner than a new delivery and avoid discarding value that remains in a serviceable aircraft.

Refurbishment as a systems programme

But refurbishment must start with evidence, not appearance. An owner needs a clear picture of the aircraft’s structural condition, maintenance status, records, parts support, upgrade eligibility and likely operating life. The programme must then be designed around approved modifications and realistic downtime. A beautiful cabin is of little value if an unexpected technical finding prevents the aircraft from returning to service on schedule.

Access models offer another route to growth. Fractional ownership, charter and managed aircraft allow customers to buy the level of flying they actually need rather than commit immediately to whole-aircraft ownership. They can introduce new users to business aviation and spread the use of available aircraft across more customers. Jetcraft’s report notes that some buyers of light aircraft are moving into ownership from charter or fractional programmes—a reminder that these models can be both alternatives to ownership and stepping stones towards it. Jetcraft, Ever Forward 2025.

Shared access does not, however, reduce the pressures of availability of maintenance hours, flight crews or replacement parts by itself. Growth in fractional fleets increases the importance of dependable planning: matching aircraft utilisation to maintenance windows, securing materials early and protecting the skilled workforce needed to keep the fleet available. The same discipline applies to conventional ownership.

Is the workforce constraint is now a growth constraint

This is where progress becomes less visible, but more consequential. The industry needs to develop technicians and specialists while making better use of their time. CAE’s 2025 Aviation Talent Forecast estimates that civil aviation will need 1.465 million new professionals by 2034, including 416,000 maintenance technicians. For business aviation specifically, NBAA’s summary of the forecast identifies a need for 69,000 new maintenance technicians and 33,000 new pilots, driven by both replacement and growth.

Retirement is only part of the challenge. New entrants require supervised experience, type training and time to develop judgement. Experienced people are also being competed for by airlines, defence programmes, OEM production lines, space businesses and adjacent technical industries.

Earlier work scoping, complete technical records, coordinated parts procurement and timely decisions on findings can reduce avoidable days on the ground. Digital systems can help, provided they support the people responsible for airworthiness rather than add another layer of administration.

The risk perimeter has moved beyond the hangar

Growth must also be resilient. Cybersecurity and physical security belong in routine aircraft, maintenance and supplier planning, particularly as aircraft and organisations become more connected. Cross-border transactions require attention to differing tax, regulatory and import requirements. And in a world of fiscal pressure and uncertain financing conditions, owners and operators need projects with credible costs, contingencies and delivery dates that are based on not optimistic schedules that assume every dependency will arrive on time.

Progress under pressure: A business aviation agenda for the next five years

The IMF’s April 2025 Fiscal Monitor warned that tariff uncertainty, weaker growth prospects, higher financing costs and increasing defense expenditure were complicating an already strained fiscal outlook. Its April 2026 update placed global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and projected it to reach 100% by 2029. Business aviation will feel this through interest rates, currencies, taxation, public scrutiny and government capacity to fund infrastructure and regulation.

Business aviation has more than one way to meet demand and manage the capacity pressures in the system. New aircraft production remains essential, so does a healthy pre-owned market, Fractional ownership is another option that is growing and thoughtfully modernised older aircraft that match aircraft to the way customers want to fly holds another way to access the market. These not competing answers to the different capacity issues within the business aviation system, but parts of a wider capacity strategy that spans the whole of the sector.

What can indicate progress

The industry’s next measure of progress should be straightforward: how reliably can the business aviation sector manage the options for aircraft ownership into a smooth experience for the owners and wider support structures that everyone depend on? The organisations that answer that question well will do more than benefit from growth, they will help make it possible.