CJI Town Hall: President Trump’s tariffs threat hard to swallow

Tough talk on tariffs. (L to R): Alastair Whyte, Ehsan Monfared, David Hernandez, Jim Bell and Tobias Kleitman.

If you like your Tweets hot and spicy, President Trump seldom disappoints. The shock waves from one post on his Truth Social platform last week are still reverberating around the aviation industry. This is the one about deregistering Bombardier Global Express jets and all aircraft made in Canada and his promise/threat to charge Canada a 50% tariff on all aircraft sold into the US. To pick a path through the apparent bravado, CJI assembled an expert panel to appear on our Emergency Town Hall staged yesterday at our CJI London 2026 conference. Their mission was to answer: How likely are both actions and what can business aviation do to mitigate the effects?

But first, it’s worth understanding what drew President Trump’s ire. His social media salvo was inspired by, in his words: “the fact that Canada has wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly refused to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700 and 800 jets”. The deregistration would remain in place until Gulfstream aircraft are fully certified in Canada.

Our Emergency Town Hall on the topic began helpfully enough. One of the panellists, Canadian Ehsan Monfared, managing partner, YYZLaw, delivered a bottle of Canadian Club whiskey to the stage on a tray with five glasses. (The top stayed on the bottle until the Town Hall ended).

Swingeing tariffs

What followed over the next 58 minutes was first reassurance – about the president’s lack of power to deregister all Canadian built aircraft and a profound sense of dismay – that he may impose swingeing tariffs on all Canadian aircraft sold into the US – including fixed wing aircraft and helicopters.

The initial re-assurance came from David Hernandez, chair at law firm Vedder. “There is zero risk that will happen anytime soon, he said commenting on the likelihood that

all aircraft made in Canada will be decertified in the US.”

The reason for his certainty rested on the fact that “Canada didn’t wrongfully or illegally do anything”. It has a right, as the state of design, to certify products as every country does. Secondly, there is a bilateral aviation safety agreement between the US and Canada and recognition that each country has a right to certify their own products.

“Also, the United States doesn’t certify anything. We validate the Canadian certification. Similarly, the same thing happens with us,” said Hernandez. “Even if there were some actions, it would have to come from the FAA, which has very limited authority to act in these types of situations. It’s only based on safety in large part. And it’s aircraft specific. There has to be a safety reason to challenge the validation.”

Finally, all challenges are subject to the Administrative Procedure Act and subject to a meeting appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals of the DC Circuit. “All of these things have to happen in advance. And you really can’t do that with a Truth Social post,” said Hernandez.

‘Can’t do that with a Truth Social post’

Jim Bell, Global Aviation and Aerospace Sector head, Watson Farley & Williams agreed with “99%” of what Hernandez said. But he worried the president might find ways to carry out his threat to deregister Canadian aircraft. He may argue that he has unilateral power that exceeds the power already given to the FAA (under Title 49 of the U.S. Code, Section 4470). Also, the FAA has rights (under Section 44709) to modify, amend, suspend or revoke its validation of Canadian aircraft certification.

President Trump’s team could make “a direct reference to safety and public interest” in seeking a safety justification for suspension or revocation of the validation. “I don’t think there is, but maybe they could argue something,” said Bell. The chances of a successful challenge are “very, very unlikely”, added Bell.

Monfared, from YYZLaw acknowledged the cause of the president’s frustration. “Transport Canada [responsible for validating the certification of the Gulfstreams] doesn’t win any prizes for its speed of implementation,” he said. “Both Transport Canada and other national aviation authorities, there is an unwritten rule that they don’t start the certification process until there’s actual demand for a product.”

After prolonged dealings with Transport Canada, Monfared agreed they were “incredibly slow”. Then he added: “Thank you, President Trump for trying to light the fire under their butt.”

Turning to the threat of 50% tariffs levied on all Canadian aircraft imported into the US, the prospects of a happy outcome were less encouraging. The president could pull out of the current US Canada trade agreement. “Tariffs are going to get bigger,” warned Hernandez. He has that power until the Supreme Court rules.” The court is due to rule within that time whether the president has had the authority to impose swingeing tariffs on a range of nations over the past year or if he had exceeded the limits of his authority.

Hernandez expects the Supreme Court to rule that President Trump has no such powers to levy tariffs. But, for some time, he has advised all his client to include a force majeure clause about tariffs in aircraft purchase agreements.

‘Usually a show stopper’

US tariffs on Canadian aviation industry imports are already in place, said tariff specialist Tobias Kleitman, president, TVPX. “We have tariffs right now on Canadian manufactured aircraft of at least 35%,” he explained. “I say at least because there’s a trans-shipment penalty, and I still quite haven’t figured out. But 35% [tariffs alone] is usually a showstopper. That applies to anything that isn’t exempt under USMCA [US-Mexico-Canada Agreement], which is most-used aircraft.”

But the president frequently changes his mind, said Kleitman, pointing out his changes of course before CJI last London conference. “If you remember, a year ago, the night before CJI, it was supposed to be tariffs at midnight. Then, the next day, they were off and delayed until April.”

Plus, it would not just be Canadian business suffered from de-registration or tariffs. Responding to President Trump’s Truth Social post, Bombardier confirmed that it employs more than 3,000 people in the US across nine major facilities. It also creates thousands of US jobs through its 2,800 suppliers. That’s in addition to the prospect of grounding hundreds, perhaps thousands of Canadian built fixed-wing and rotary aircraft.

As if the current threat to rack up tariffs on Canadian aircraft is not enough, Monfared predicted that when the current USMCA trade agreement expires in July, it will not be renewed. “There’s going to be massive upheaval in terms of trade processes that are already happening,” he warned. “Canada buys an incredible amount of things from US producers.”

If that happens, it might take more than one bottle of Canadian Club to calm jittery nerves on both sides of the Canadian border.