Escalating US-Venezuela tensions heighten risk for operators
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Dynamically evolving tensions in and around Venezuela have prompted a wave of new airspace restrictions, regulatory notices and warnings from aviation authorities, as concerns grow over the possibility of military confrontation and accidental downing of civilian aircraft.
According to aviation intelligence specialist Osprey Flight Solutions, the situation has shifted dramatically even in the days since it hosted a webinar on the topic on Tuesday.
A series of NOTAMs issued by multiple countries – including the US, Spain and Portugal – has signalled mounting alarm over Venezuelan-controlled airspace, where military activity from both Venezuela and the US has increased sharply since a first strike by US forces on an alleged narco-trafficking vessel on September 2nd.
An initial US NOTAM covering Puerto Rican airspace, reflected intensified US military operations in the southern Caribbean. Soon after, the US issued a new NOTAM specifically targeting Venezuelan airspace, its first restrictions since a prohibition that had been lifted without explanation in 2023.
Mark Brace, head of Analysis at Osprey, who has been monitoring the situation closely since February, said the pattern reflects a “harder line” from the Trump administration. The US has recently designated several cartels as foreign terrorist organisations, alleging that one is led by president Nicolás Maduro. That classification provides the US with a legal basis for expanded military operations, potentially including airstrikes inside Venezuela.
“Such a move would represent a significant escalation,” said Brace. “If that happens, we would expect to increase our risk ratings immediately.”
Brace also referenced claims that originated from US officials regarding the possible existence of a bunker beneath ramp 4 at Simón Bolívar International Airport, Caracas. This section of the airport is used by business and general aviation operators. While unconfirmed, the allegation has heightened concern among operators, said Brace.
Following updated advisories from the national regulator, Spanish carriers, previously the last major European operators using Venezuelan airspace, have been urged to avoid the region altogether.
Rising geopolitical tension aside, operators face existing risks from Venezuelan Air Force aerial intercepts. Isobel Kerr, analysis output manager at Osprey, said these intercepts target flights suspected of narcotics trafficking, illegal mining activity or improper flight plans, but they carry risks for legitimate aviation.
“With heightened military posture on both sides, the risk of misidentification increases,” said Kerr. “Loss of ATC contact, transponder issues or GNSS [Global Navigation Satellite System] interference could all be misread as hostile intent.”
Venezuela has also increased the tempo of intercepts since early September, which analysts believe may be an effort to demonstrate counter-narcotics capability amid US criticism. The Venezuelan military operates several advanced surface-to-air missile systems, all of which have been involved in high-profile civilian shoot-down incidents in other regions in recent years.
Data indicates that narcotics-related flights have risen again in recent weeks. They had until September been on the decline region-wide for about one year due to disrupted airstrips and a potential shift to maritime trafficking routes.
That uptick coincides with increased US military presence in the southern Caribbean, said Kerr.
The Venezuelan military is also “well equipped”, according to Brace. Its armed forces have access to three types of anti-aircraft weapons used to target civilian aircraft in recent years. These include the Russian SA-11 missile system used to down Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014.
The danger zone is not confined to Venezuelan airspace, said Brace. “Threats don’t stop at FIR boundaries,” he explained. “Nearby islands such as Curaçao, Aruba and Trinidad and Tobago sit directly in the affected region. Curaçao has already issued warnings about GPS interference, and Trinidad and Tobago has reported similar issues informally.”
The Venezuelan FIR stretches far north toward Puerto Rico, and many airlines have begun rerouting to avoid the area entirely. Venezuela itself has not yet closed its airspace, but Brace warns this could happen suddenly.
Offering guidance for operators flying in the region, Kerr said precise and compliant flight plans must be filed ahead of time, continuous ATC communication must be maintained, a daily review of NOTAMs and regulatory directives should be undertaken and diversion strategies and alternate landing locations should be prepared.
“Operators must be ready for rapid changes,” said Kerr. “A closure could come with little or no notice.”
