Celebrating the end of Q1 for business aviation

opinion

by Alasdair Whyte

January 12, 2026

“Good morning and welcome to the first-quarter conference call of the business aviation market for the 21st Century. Any forward-looking statements made today are subject to some risks and uncertainties. Actually, just disregard any forward statements.

As you all know, Q1 started strongly. In 2008 production peaked at 1,317 aircraft before falling sharply. Demand quietened down until mid-2020 when things bounced back.

As we head into Q2 (bringing us to 2050), 2026 looks set to be a strong year. Before Covid aircraft buyers tended to hold back and pause when there was uncertainty. Since then, many buyers are more worried about missing out on opportunities than worried about turmoil. You can see this all over the world, but particularly in the US and the Middle East.

The lost decade of business aviation (2008-2018) has been replaced by the don’t-miss-out period (2020-2026?).

Strong manufacturer backlogs are also encouraging new aircraft buyers to order now. No one knows what the world will look like in two years, but it is better to have the option to take delivery of a new aircraft, than wait and discover that you are at the back of the backlog.

Aircraft buyers

This is not just applying to aircraft buyers, 2025 saw a big rebound in mergers and acquisitions, particularly mega deals of over $1bn. With the artificial intelligence boom there is no sign of that stopping. Companies are choosing to invest now, despite geopolitics.

This corporate dealmaking was one of the reasons that flights rose in 2025. WINGX data shows a 5% rise in business jet flights in the year. North America (which accounted for 72% of all flights) drove most of the global growth. But Latin American flights rose 11%, the Middle East 7% and Asia 4%. Europe saw just 1% growth in flights.

Fractional operators and fleet operators accounted for a lot of the growth in flights in 2025. They also took a lot of the headlines. Vista raised $600m in equity led by RRJ Capital. Flexjet raised $800m from L Catterton, KSL Capital Partners and J Safra Group. It ordered 182 aircraft from Embraer and also placed an “order” with Otto, the new windowless aircraft manufacturer.

There was also the launch of BOND, the new fractional operator led by Bill Papariella. PhenixJet launched a fractional in Japan (something worth watching) and GlobeAir, the successful Mustang operator, did the same in Europe.

This ending was in contrast with how fractional operators fared in Q1 as a whole. In 2009 Warren Buffett said that NetJets had only survived because it was owned by Berkshire Hathaway. In the first 11 years that Berkshire Hathaway owned NetJets it made a $157m aggregate loss. NetJets, of course, bounced back and has seen strong demand and results, particularly from 2020. But running a fractional is for the brave.

Aircraft maintenance

Perhaps the biggest change in the first quarter of the century is with aircraft maintenance. In 2000, OEMs were focused on selling aircraft. Now, services are seen as just as important.

But despite this investment, for the last five years, aircraft owners and operators have become increasingly frustrated about parts. Supply chains have continued to creak since Covid.

Although aircraft manufacturers have increased deliveries, there are still shortages of engines, parts and components to support the existing fleet. This needs to improve to keep customers happy – it is also pushing aircraft owners to branded charter and fractionals.

Like Q1, the one thing you can count on is that we will not see steady growth. In the next 25 years we will see aircraft deliveries get past 1,500 a year and new OEMs (Embraer, which only delivered its first business jet in 2002, had a very strong first quarter delivering more than 2000 aircraft). But we will also have downturns.

One thing is guaranteed: The business jet market will remain the most fascinating, fun, part of aviation. Now, do we have any questions?”