How my 2013 business jet market predictions fared


While my two sports predictions were pretty good, my business jet market forecast was mixed.


Looking back on my business jet market predictions for 2013, it is frustrating how many easy things I could have predicted like aircraft delays and the launch of the Falcon 5X.

My main predictions were:

  • Manufacturers will deliver more aircraft than in 2012 allowing us to declare 2011 and 2012 as the years in which the market hit the bottom – there will be 640 business jet deliveries in 2013. I was clearly confused with this one, as although my number is looking good 640 deliveries is still less than 2011 and 2012.
  • Regionally I think that the US market will lead the growth. There was some truth in this.
  • Pre-owned sales prices stabilising as the year goes on. This did not really happen and prices continued to fall.
  • Europe – which looks dire – will pick up towards the end of the year. It didn’t.
  • India and Brazil will disappoint  This was probably fair – especially India.
  • Aircraft will move to Malaysia and the Philippines, but Indonesia will be held back by lack of finance  This happened.
  • Several new international business jet finance companies will launch. I am still waiting for these to launch.

My sports predictions were actually pretty good:

  • The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl  They did.
  • The Chennai Super Kings will win the Indian Cricket Premier League. They were second.

So on the whole, not brilliant. Perhaps I should switch to being a sports pundit.

Subscribe to our free newsletter

For more opinions from Corporate Jet Investor, subscribe to our One Minute Week newsletter.

Subscribe here