Our survey says…
NOTE: The below originally appeared as the editorial in our February 12 One Minute Week newsletter. To find out more, and sign up for free, please click here.
Many thanks to the hundreds of people (more than 300) who responded to our survey two weeks ago.
The headline results show there is still a lot of optimism in the market. Despite financial markets. But people are far more bullish about the next three years than they are about the next 12 months.
Some 30% of people in the market expect 2016 to be similar to 2015 and another 40% expect to see the number of deals fall. Just a quarter of people in the market expect 2016 to see more business jet sales than 2015.
Respondents are more optimistic about the next three years with 60% expecting the number of sales to rise in 2017 and 2018. Optimists are mainly (60%) relying on a rise in the number of high net worth individuals and the global economy. One quarter were also confident that the benefits of business aviation are getting clearer (or airlines are getting worse).
Bears generally felt that the economy is going to get worse. (something that many stock market investors now seem to agree with.) With a sizeable number particularly worried about emerging markets. On the whole, most respondents felt the US will be the most important market for the next few years.
Some 40% of people believe the biggest growth will be in mid-size jets with 27% most optimistic about large jets.
One of the most surprising figures is how optimistic many people are about China in the next three years. Almost half of people responding expect the Chinese fleet to grow, with 17% expecting it to increase significantly between now and 2018.
Recent election polls show that surveys are not always good predictors. And the closed questions we ask remove a lot of subtleties from answers but it is fascinating to see what so many industry insiders are thinking. Hopefully the optimism is realistic.