Mesinger Pulse: What direction is the market moving?

I don’t think anyone would argue that our aircraft market is on the move, writes Jay Mesinger, CEO and founder, Mesinger Jet Sales.

For example, look at this month’s Controller Magazine with 379 pages of aircraft for sale. I haven’t seen the publication as thick in several years. Many of the email marketing companies are reporting an increased number of daily messages going out announcing on the market, requiring sellers to affect pricing and undergo maintenance inspections they had probably hoped would be on the new owners’ time and dime. Or, at the very least, accomplished during a pre-buy inspection that occurs during a selling event.

So, what does this mean? From where I sit, we are still seeing a good amount of demand, though maybe not with the same vigour we all experienced during the final quarter of the year as buyers move to capture year-end 100% bonus depreciation opportunities.

Something I frequently comment on is that our markets do not like uncertainty and there seems to be no shortage of that right now. It is a bit like the weather in Colorado; if you don’t like it, just wait an hour, and it will change. This also seems to be the narrative of the tariff story. One day we have them, the next they disappear.  And the greater effects of all the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) cuts have yet to be written.

Getting some clarity around tax breaks and the renewal of the 100% bonus depreciation would be nice. I know those who can afford to buy and operate these business tools are standing by watching for those outcomes.

So, back to the title of this article. Is the market moving from the top up, meaning is the top of the market pulling up the market and sending prices upwards, or is it being pulled down from the bottom? It might be bifurcated. This would see the very top, long range newer aircraft segregate themselves from the older, slower, shorter range planes that are then pulled down at the bottom. We have not seen this phenomenon in many years.

We always say this could be the end of the ageing aircraft playing such a role in the overall fleet of our aircraft universe. However, new demand for ageing aircraft in the fleet, as supply dwindles, keeps reviving this segment. And conversely, supply chain issues, parts issues, and obsolescence issues keep trying to end-of-life this segment. Maybe this time it really will.

So, to recap, uncertainty over government cutbacks, uncertainty over tariffs and uncertainty over International issues will really plague us all. Bringing certainty to the financial and International segments of our life will help us all. Let’s watch this together and keep our eyes and ears open and our communication channels open. Talk soon.