NOTE: The below originally appeared as the editorial in our June 12 One Minute Week newsletter. To find out more, and sign up for free, please click here.
Three years ago the Chinese business jet market was as hot as the paper shredders at FIFA Headquarters are today.
The market is much cooler now. Following the anti-graft measures and slower growth it is possible that the Chinese fleet will fall this year. Jeff Lowe, managing director of Asian Sky Group, estimates that more than 50 Chinese aircraft are for sale. He expects OEMs to deliver 48 aircraft this year.
But – and everyone who lives in Asia gets fed up of having to say this – Asia is not just China. Speakers and delegates at our Fifth Annual Corporate Jet Investor Asia Conference in Singapore are all confident about rising demand for aircraft in the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. (And, despite anti-graft measures, the number of ACJs and BBJs going into China is rising). The Asian business jet fleet (like AsBAA its association) is continuing to grow strongly.
At Corporate Jet Investor London in February 2015: eight per cent of delegates were very optimistic about the next 12 months for the business jet market; 61 per cent fairly optimistic; and 29 per cent fairly pessimistic. Four months and 6,765 miles later, the feeling in Singapore has darkened. Just two percent were very optimistic and 47 percent fairly optimistic.
As in London, most delegates are more optimistic about their own firms than the market. This makes sense. Values and new aircraft deliveries may be falling but the number of transactions is rising.
And after a few Singapore Slings – a cocktail that celebrates its 100th anniversary this year – things look much rosier.