Miami nice 2018
Miami Beach is not a place that is famous for restraint. But at Corporate Jet Investor Miami last week no one was getting carried away. The market is good, but no one is taking it for granted.
This is not to say that the mood was not optimistic. It was, but there was also a lot of discussion about the headwinds facing the industry. Brian Proctor, founder of MENTE Group, listed some of these including MRO availability, the strong dollar hitting non-US sales, maintenance costs, finding engineers and pilots (one operator said he had recently hired a pilot on $305,000 a year) and political risk. Almost half of the room saw politics as the biggest risk.
One reason for the caution is that memories of the 2008 downturn are still fresh. Some 45% of the more than 300 people at the event believe the next downturn will hit in 2020. One in four people went for 2019 with a similar number going for 2021. Some 6% believe we will never have another downturn and that the party will continue. Very Miami Beach.
Everyone was optimistic about the long-term – with Bombardier, Embraer and Gulfstream all outlining how they are investing in the future. But for now, everyone can remember the hangover in 2009.