Bombardier releases annual market forecast

As part of its annual forecast, Bombardier Aerospace released its annual 20-year forecast for the business aircraft market during a pre-Farnborough media event, held at its headquarters in Dorval, Quebec.

The business aircraft markets are continuing to recover from the industry downturn, indicators are mixed, yet trending is positive. New aircraft orders are supported by continued demand from developed markets and growth potential in emerging markets, which are forecasted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace. Operators industry-wide remain focused on fleet optimization and aircraft efficiency as fuel prices and environmental concerns rise.

“We have built our leadership position in aviation by continuously pushing the boundaries of product development to better meet the needs of our customers, both those who operate our aircraft and those who use them as a mode
of transportation,” said Mairead Lavery, vice president, Strategy, Business Development and Structured Finance, Bombardier Aerospace. “We will continue to deliver industry-leading mobility solutions, and we are positioning ourselves for a period of growth by pursuing our international expansion strategy to be closer to our customers in traditional and emerging markets.”

Bombardier is confident in the strong, long-term potential of the business aircraft industry and forecasts a total of 24,000 business jet deliveries from 2012 to 2031 in all segments in which Bombardier competes, which represents approximately $648 billion in industry revenues. The Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast anticipates 9,800 aircraft deliveries, worth $266 billion from 2012 to 2021 and 14,200 deliveries, worth $382 billion from 2022 to 2031.

While the business aviation market continues to recover, current market indicators are mixed. Bombardier says that market confidence needs to be fully restored for industry business jet deliveries to increase strongly and enable the industry to realise its full potential. Deliveries are expected to lag order intake as manufacturers strive to maintain acceptable backlog levels, and business jet industry deliveries for 2012 are expected to be comparable to 2011. Bombardier believes business jet industry deliveries will return to sustained growth starting in 2013, with the Large aircraft category demonstrating the fastest growth.

Over the forecast period, Bombardier predicts that North America will receive the greatest number of new business jet deliveries between 2012 and 2031 with 9,500 aircraft, followed by Europe, with 3,920 aircraft. Notably, China will become the third largest market for business jet deliveries, with 2,420 deliveries from 2012 to 2031. Bombardier also expects key growth markets, including Brazil, India, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Indonesia,
Mexico, South Korea and Turkey, to receive a significant share of business jet deliveries during the next 20 years.

During this period, Bombardier will have launched new products and these should impact on these new aircraft orders over the coming years, Learjet 70 and 75 launched at this year’s EBACE in May, along with the Learjet 85 and Global 7000 and 8000 launched over the past couple of years.