Recklessly Pessimistic (Corporate Jet Investor One Minute Week 316)


Over the last few years, the term ‘Cautiously optimistic’ has become the most overused expression in business aviation. Not that it really means anything. It is used by people to cover themselves just in case their predictions do not work out.

Anyone coming to EBACE should brace themselves to hear this expression a lot.

This time around though there are a lot more encouraging signs that things are getting better. WINGX reported recently that business aviation movements across Europe increased for six consecutive months, with this April seeing the highest number of movements in an April since 2011. Brokers are seeing strong pre-owned demand.

But it feels as if we have been here before. Every year we hear the ‘cautiously optimistic’ phrase trotted out around this time of the year, and every year it seems like the recovery has been pushed back for another year.

The World Bank forecasts GDP growth of 2.4% in 2017 for Europe, compared to 2.2% in the US. But America continues to dominate business aviation – and everyone in Geneva is hoping that the US will drive demand.

It looks unlikely that there will be new aircraft launches at EBACE attendance is looking strong. This year the show starts on a Monday rather than a Tuesday, with the press day falling on the Sunday. We will be there and I will probably be feeling recklessly pessimistic by the end.

This originally appeared as the editorial in our Corporate Jet Investor One Minute Week newsletter. To find out more, and sign up for free, please click here.