Those who know, don’t predict – 2013 business jet market forecast
Everyone knows that it is impossible to predict the future, but that does not stop me trying to forecast what will happen with the business jet market in 2013.
“Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge, “wrote Lao Tzu, a Chinese poet in the sixth Century BC. Wise words indeed and the perfect introduction to my 2013 business jet market predictions.
Manufacturers will deliver more aircraft than in 2012 allowing us to declare 2011 and 2012 as the years in which the market hit the bottom. Some 594 business jets were delivered in 2011, down from the 990 record in 2008. On my calculations suggest there will be 640 business jet deliveries in 2013.
Regionally I think that the US market will lead the growth with pre-owned sales prices stabilising as the year goes on. Europe – which looks dire – will pick up towards the end of the year. India and Brazil will disappoint. Aircraft will move to Malaysia and the Philippines, but Indonesia will be held back by lack of finance. Several new international business jet finance companies will launch.
The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl and the Chennai Super Kings will win the Indian (Cricket) Premier League.
Tzu was right and you can actually check the inaccuracy of last year’s forecast on our website. If you have any predictions for 2013 I would love to hear them and will publish them in the next email. They can be anonymous.