JP Morgan remains cautious in October 2013 business jet report

JP Morgan predicts the Dassault Falcon 5X will be the higest profile launch at NBAA 2013.

JP Morgan said that indicators are marginally better, but momentum is insufficient for them to abandon their caution.

JP Morgan predicts the Dassault Falcon 5X will be the higest profile launch at NBAA 2013.

JP Morgan identified a fifth consecutive growth month for US flight operations in September 2013 as “the key positive trend” in the latest edition of its monthly business jet report, while pre-owned aircraft values remained the company’s biggest concern.

Flight operations were less promising for business aircraft in Europe, but have remained more-or-less flat for the past two months.

“While there was a modest uptick in September, the trend recently has been downward,” the report stated. “All in, the data is looking marginally better but not enough to convince us we are approaching escape velocity for new jet demand.”

“Aircraft for sale increased marginally to 10.3 per cent of the fleet in September and has remained in the 10.1-10.3 per cent range for eight months.”

Heavy jet values caused the average asking price of pre-owned business jet fleet to increase by 0.4 per cent month-on-month in September for the first time after four months of declines of more than 1 per cent. Light and medium jet prices both declined, falling 3.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively

In a preview of the NBAA 2013 event, which runs next week from 22 October in Las Vegas, JP Morgan said: “Dassault’s Falcon 5X could be this year’s highest profile launch, and this jet would join a crowded space that includes the Challenger 300/350, Gulfstream 280, Legacy 500 and Citation X. The launch of a Gulfstream G450 replacement (known as P42) is also possible at NBAA, but we view this as more likely to occur next year.”