Jetcraft predicts almost 12,000 pre-owned transactions in the next five years

Jetcraft, the business-aircraft broker, predicts that there will be a total of 11,975 pre-owned business jet transactions in the next five years, with an estimated value of $61 billion.

In its latest report, which looks at pre-owned transactions and new aircraft deliveries over the next five years, Jetcraft says that it has seen a shift towards pre-owned transactions, as new aircraft deliveries begin to stall.

This, it says, will be due to an upcoming economic downturn that will flatten out new aircraft deliveries.

Data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) shows that in all categories there were 703 business-jet deliveries in 2018, a decline of three per cent from the 722 deliveries of 2014.

Despite this, the firm has forecast that there will be 3,444 new business-jet deliveries in the five-year period, with an estimated value of $90.5 billion. Overall, Jetcraft says that the global business aircraft fleet will grow by 12.1% over the forecast period.

The company also says that new aircraft deliveries will be tilted more towards large-cabin jets, with fewer light-jet deliveries taking place.

Pascal Bachmann, Jetcraft’s vice president of sales for EMEA says that this shift towards larger aircraft is good for manufacturers’ bottom lines. “Manufacturers are now focusing more on producing aircraft in the midsize segment and above. This will result in lower unit deliveries but provide higher revenues,” says Bachmann.

For David Dixon, president of Jetcraft Asia, the shift towards larger aircraft makes sense, especially for buyers outside the core US market, where most missions flown are mainly intercontinental.

According to Jetcraft, the number of pre-owned aircraft for sale between 2009 and 2018 fell by 27.5%. The company is projecting that number to increase, as owners of smaller aircraft sell off their assets to move up the product range. Owners in the large category will remain in the same category, but potentially trade up for newer models.

Although some of those newer models of aircraft have already been announced, Jetcraft believes there will be just three new models announced in the light-jet sector within the five years . Those aircraft Jetcraft says will be announced will likely be the Citation CJ5, HondaJet 2 and the Phenom 350E.

However, in the larger sectors, Jetcraft believes that all the major manufacturers will announce new models, aside from Bombardier, which is currently working out what to do with the potential Global 8000.

Those that Jetcraft believe will be launched include the Gulfstream G700, the Falcon 9X and the Embraer Praetor 800.