Jetcraft: Pre-owned sales set to hit $67bn by 2026
Pre-owned aircraft transactions are expected to hit $66.6bn over the next five years, according to Jetcraft’s latest five-year forecast Ever Forward.
Jetcraft predicts the revenue will come from 10,921 transactions; or an average of 2,351 transactions per year valued at $13.5bn.
The advisory group said 2021 was a record year for business aviation, with an annual total transaction value of $14.5bn and said early 2022 was equally strong. Jetcraft reckons the market will soften with normal depreciation levels resuming in 2023 but will still be higher than pre-covid rates. Chad Anderson, CEO, Jetcraft said: “After stabilising in the wake of a post-covid surge, pre-owned transactions should maintain their new higher base and growth rates.”
The forecast added that although aircraft values have been increasing since Covid, the industry is still acting rationally when it comes to buying and selling jets, unlike the bubble of 2007-2008. Despite continued high demand and low inventory, current prices are “reasonable” compared with pre-pandemic levels.
Ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWI) will drive the demand in the sector. The UHNWI population is set to grow by a third (33%) over the next five years, suggesting potential for pre-owned large jet transactions in the region. The number of younger buyers has also increased, with the share of buyers under 45 having risen by 20% in the past five years, which is driving a further increase for larger aircraft purchases.
“This younger buyer persona offers real lifetime value to our industry,” Anderson said, “while the predicted growth of the UHNWI population also underlines the potential for the future of the sector.”
Jahid Fazal-Karim, owner and chairman of the board, Jetcraft said: “We are now entering a post-pandemic business cycle from a new, higher starting point, with a predicted steady upward trajectory fuelled by more and younger first-time buyers entering the market, alongside strong demand for larger jets and a growing UHNWI population.”
To read the full report, click here.
Jetcraft’s five-year forecast Ever Forward – at a glance:
- Transactions expected to hit $66.6bn over next five years.
- Transaction volumes expected to stabilise at 2,000+ annually and return to steady growth through 2026.
- North America continues to lead demand for pre-owned business jets across the globe, growing from 53% market share in 2010 to 73% in 2021 in terms of aircraft value.
- Share of Jetcraft pre-owned jet buyers under 45 is growing, especially in Asia Pacific (15.2%), Europe (24%) and the Middle East and Africa (38%).
- All UHNWI populations are set to increase globally by at least 21% over the next five years.