Bizjet market set for ‘prolonged period of healthy growth’: Honeywell

Global aerospace company Honeywell released its annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, forecasting a surge in demand for new business jets over the next decade anticipating up to 8,500 new business jets valued at $280bn to be delivered between now and 2034. This represents an increase in value compared to last year’s forecast, indicating a growing appetite for luxury private aircraft.

“The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of healthy growth, and we don’t see that positive trend changing any time soon,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. “Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result, manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future. Despite a mixed macroeconomic environment and challenging geopolitical circumstances, operators are optimistic about their flight activity increasing in 2025 and beyond.”

The survey results showed that while the five-year new jet purchase plans of business aviation operators remained consistent with previous year’s levels, the overall demand for new aircraft is stabilising significantly above pre-pandemic levels.

New business jet deliveries in 2025 are expected to be 12% higher than in 2024. Five-year purchase plans for new jets remain comparable to last year, accounting for approximately 18% of the current fleet.

The survey revealed that over 90% of respondents anticipate flying more or at similar levels in 2025 compared to 2024. Large jets are expected to account for roughly two-thirds of all new business jet expenditures in the next five years, in line with last year’s projections.

New aircraft models introduced in recent years have played a significant role in driving demand for new jets, a trend expected to continue well into the 2030s. Flight activity is projected to increase in 2025, particularly for operators with high utilisation levels.

Moreover, fractional operators are poised to benefit the most from new customer growth, as both traditional operators and new customers look to supplement their current operations with fractional shares.

Regional breakdown

North America remains the dominant market for business aviation, accounting for 66% of the five-year new jet deliveries. This is consistent with historical demand in the region. A significant portion of the demand comes from North American respondents who plan to fly more next year, contributing to the sustained growth in new jet deliveries.

European operators are expected to account for 13% of the five-year new jet deliveries, slightly below last year’s share. The region’s strong focus on sustainability, environmental pressures, and the availability of alternative transit options are likely factors contributing to this modest decline in new aircraft demand.

Latin America is experiencing a surge in demand, with operators projected to account for 10% of the five-year new jet deliveries. This represents a five-percentage point increase from their share in 2023. The region’s optimistic outlook on macroeconomic conditions is expected to drive increased flight activity and demand for new jets, particularly in Brazil, where year-over-year flight activity growth is outpacing the global average.

Asia Pacific is showing signs of recovery after several years of decline during the pandemic. Flight activity in Australia has seen a notable uptick, with departures increasing by nearly double digits year-over-year.

The Middle East and Africa region is experiencing a decline in new jet deliveries, with a three-percentage point decrease from last year’s surveyed expectations. Flight activity in the region has declined year-over-year through the first half of 2024, likely due to regional conflicts.

The market for pre-owned aircraft is stabilising after reaching record low inventory levels in 2021 and 2022. While pre-owned aircraft inventory is expected to increase gradually, prices are anticipated to remain stable, supporting steady demand for used aircraft.

Sustainability trends

The survey also delves into sustainability in business aviation and examines how operators are working to reduce their carbon footprint. Key findings include:

• European operators are more proactive in reducing their carbon footprint compared to North American operators, although the total number of proactive operators in North America is still higher due to the region’s larger volume of business aviation operations.
• The acquisition of new, more fuel-efficient aircraft is considered the most effective method for reducing environmental impact, with 85% of respondents identifying it as highly or moderately effective.
• However, only 60% of operators who report taking proactive steps to minimise their carbon footprint are utilising this method.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is another key method for improving environmental impact, with 55% of proactive operators using it in their operations. Cost and availability are the primary obstacles to adopting SAF, with 75% of operators ranking cost among their top three concerns and 64% citing availability as an issue.

Overall, the business aviation market is experiencing a period of strong growth, driven by increased demand for new aircraft, rising flight activity, and a growing emphasis on sustainability. As the industry continues to evolve, the focus on performance, cost, and environmental impact will remain paramount for both operators and manufacturers.

Honeywell conducted extensive surveys of business aviation operators worldwide, gathering data on their sentiments, preferences, and concerns.