Embraer revises global forecast downwards, but bumps up North America


Embraer’s latest business jet forecast revises global deliveries downwards slightly, but adds demand in the US.
Embraer Phenom 300

Embraer Phenom 300

Brazilian airframer Embraer has released its latest business jet forecast, with less emphasis on demand in developing countries.

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Although its latest forecast calls for 15 less deliveries globally, Embraer sees more aircraft delivered into North America than it had previously predicted.

As the largest market for business jets globally, higher than originally forecast demand in North America is seen a key driver in the market recovery.

Overall, Embraer sees 9,235 business jet deliveries over the course of the next 10 years, down from the 9,250 deliveries predicted in its last forecast.

The bulk of the aircraft are predicted to be delivered to North America, where Embraer expects 4,620 deliveries worth a combined $120 billion, up 2 per cent from the 4,530 it previously predicted.

Outside North America Embraer doesn’t see emerging economies fulfilling their potential in the medium term, with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – the so called BRICS countries – seeing a dip in forecasted deliveries.

Embraer sees the biggest drop in Asia Pacific and China, where its forecast has been cut from 1,405 deliveries down to 1,530.

“We will continue to see slow growth in coming years due to indecision over whether or not to buy new planes or replace existing aircraft, principally in the BRICS countries,” said Marco Tulio Pellegrini, CEO of Embraer Executive Aviation. “The recovery in the market will depend very much on the American economy.”

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