AvWeek releases 2016 business aviation forecast

Dassault Falcon 7X

Aviation Week has released its business aviation forecast for the years between 2016 and 2025. The forecast takes into account the company’s downwardly adjusted delivery forecasts.

The company says that the western built business jet fleet will jump from 31,000 in service aircraft in 2016, to almost 38,000 in 2025. Aviation Week is expecting the yearly rise, which includes new deliveries, pre-owned imports and retirements, to be around 2.3%.

Ultra long range and super mid-size aircraft are predicted to be the fastest growing categories, although Aviation Week expect very light jets to grow rapidly as well.

North America is expected to remain the dominant market, with 8,000 aircraft forecast to be delivered. Europe will remain the second largest market, followed by Latin America.

“The 2016 forecast expectations show that the North American market will dominate the world sales and MRO demand for years to come; and will also have a vibrant fleet replacement cycle with nearly 3,400 aircraft retirements and over 8,000 aircraft deliveries,” said Brian Kough, director of forecasts & analysis with Aviation Week Intelligence Network. “Latin America, despite some rough current economic conditions, is expected to be the 3rd largest market for deliveries superseded by Western Europe, the 2nd largest sales market. Our actual delivery estimates have diminished noticeably this year compared to last, but we still feel sales will be pretty solid given the current economic, financial and geopolitical conditions.”

The Gulfstream G650 and the Challenger 350 are forecast to be amongst the most delivered business jet types.